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Quintin Morris

Jacksonville Jaguars · Tight endTE3

Over 14 games last season Quintin Morris averaged 0.4 receptions and 4 yards on 26% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.6
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
6
Anytime TD
12%

What a realistic week looks like

63%024%18%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.6 projected
26 wk3NE29%0.0%00000.7 -0.7
26 wk2DEN22%3.6%1170—
26 wk1CLE42%4.8%1000—
25 wk19BUF11%0.0%0000—
25 wk18TEN43%3.2%1151—
25 wk17IND14%0.0%0000—
25 wk16DEN27%2.9%1150—
25 wk15NYJ27%7.1%22200—
25 wk14IND31%0.0%0000—
25 wk13TEN19%8.0%21140—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 160%
5+ receptions0 of 160%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards0 of 160%
75+ receiving yards0 of 160%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown1 of 166%

Career by season

Quintin Morris: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.32.30.7031%2.8%
2025140.43.90.6126%2.5%
2024190.31.90.4119%1.5%
2023170.11.50.2117%0.6%
2022160.66.40.9130%2.2%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4