Raheim Sanders has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
2.2
1.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
16
Anytime TD
13%
third-down role (+0.12)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.2 projected
26 wk3
CAR
43%
16.7%
5
4
34
1
17
0
1.7 +2.3
26 wk2
TB
19%
3.3%
1
1
7
2
4
0
—
26 wk1
JAX
35%
13.6%
3
3
25
1
1
0
—
25 wk18
CIN
27%
4.8%
1
1
7
5
26
0
—
25 wk17
PIT
42%
8.7%
2
1
10
8
21
0
—
25 wk16
BUF
30%
3.7%
1
1
4
11
42
0
—
25 wk1
CIN
4%
0.0%
0
0
0
3
3
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 6 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
1 of 6
17%
5+ receptions
0 of 6
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 6
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 6
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 6
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 6
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 6
17%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
Carries/gm
Rush yds/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.7
22.0
3.0
1.3
7.3
0
32%
11.2%
2025
4
0.8
5.2
1.0
6.8
23.0
1
26%
4.3%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016