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Rasheen Ali

Baltimore Ravens · Running backRB3

Over 15 games last season Rasheen Ali averaged 0.6 receptions and 5 yards on 20% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
-1
Anytime TD
14%

What a realistic week looks like

71%020%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.4 projected
26 wk3DAL—0.0%0000000.5 -0.5
26 wk2NO—0.0%000000—
26 wk1IND—0.0%000000—
25 wk18PIT16%0.0%000100—
25 wk17GB20%15.0%328000—
25 wk16NE22%10.0%222000—
25 wk15CIN27%16.7%2232001—
25 wk14PIT34%9.1%3211120—
25 wk13CIN48%0.0%0004170—
25 wk11CLE20%4.0%1115000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 170%
5+ receptions0 of 170%
7+ receptions0 of 170%
50+ receiving yards0 of 170%
75+ receiving yards0 of 170%
100+ receiving yards0 of 170%
Scored a touchdown1 of 176%

Career by season

Rasheen Ali: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.00.00.000%0.0%
2025150.64.50.70.51.6120%3.7%
202450.00.00.42.06.2012%1.3%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4