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Rashod Bateman

Baltimore Ravens · Wide receiverWR2

Over 13 games last season Rashod Bateman averaged 1.5 receptions and 17 yards on 69% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.8
1.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
42
Anytime TD
25%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

10%020%122%218%313%48%55%62%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.8 projected
26 wk3DAL88%15.0%323702.9 -0.9
26 wk2NO93%31.0%97881—
26 wk1IND78%4.2%1000—
25 wk17GB53%5.0%1170—
25 wk16NE69%10.0%2000—
25 wk14PIT86%9.1%32230—
25 wk13CIN73%3.3%1000—
25 wk10MIN61%7.1%21100—
25 wk9MIA71%17.4%42131—
25 wk8CHI79%18.2%42510—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 1513%
5+ receptions2 of 1513%
7+ receptions1 of 157%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1520%
75+ receiving yards1 of 157%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1520%

Career by season

Rashod Bateman: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.041.74.3186%16.7%
2025131.517.22.9269%11.9%
2024192.744.54.21168%15.8%
2023182.022.73.4158%12.6%
202262.547.54.7251%18.6%
2021123.842.95.7168%16.1%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Rashod Bateman sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BAL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4