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Ryan Flournoy

Dallas Cowboys · Wide receiverWR3

Over 15 games last season Ryan Flournoy averaged 2.7 receptions and 32 yards on 48% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.1
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
40
Anytime TD
23%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

7%016%120%219%314%410%56%64%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————3.1 projected
26 wk3BAL66%20.0%822203.3 -1.3
26 wk2WAS76%19.4%65230—
26 wk1NYG71%13.3%42220—
25 wk18NYG87%30.4%75680—
25 wk16LAC40%6.2%22181—
25 wk15MIN64%14.3%54400—
25 wk14DET65%27.7%1391151—
25 wk13KC38%8.1%33340—
25 wk12PHI45%2.9%1000—
25 wk11LV43%3.1%1121—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 1741%
5+ receptions4 of 1724%
7+ receptions1 of 176%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1718%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1712%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1712%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1724%

Career by season

Ryan Flournoy: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.022.36.0071%17.6%
2025152.731.73.7448%11.1%
2024110.99.31.3020%3.4%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4