Ryan Miller

Miami Dolphins · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 13 games last season Ryan Miller averaged 0.2 receptions and 3 yards on 16% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.7

0.5 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

11%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7 projected
26 wk3	KC	22%	8.6%	3	2	15	0	0.5 +1.5
26 wk2	SF	12%	4.3%	1	1	77	1	—
25 wk14	NO	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	ARI	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	LA	7%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	BUF	10%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	NE	12%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk8	NO	34%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk7	DET	13%	2.0%	1	1	14	0	—
25 wk6	SF	25%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 14	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 14	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 14	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 14	7%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 14	7%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 14	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 14	14%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	1.5	46.0	2.0	1	17%	6.5%
2025	13	0.2	2.6	0.3	1	16%	0.9%
2024	12	1.0	10.7	1.7	2	35%	4.8%
2023	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	5%	0.0%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4