Sterling Shepard

New York Jets · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 13 games last season Sterling Shepard averaged 3.0 receptions and 29 yards on 56% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.9

1.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9 projected
26 wk3	DET	45%	2.8%	1	1	3	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	NO	57%	3.6%	1	1	5	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	ARI	26%	7.7%	2	1	5	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	LA	59%	16.1%	5	3	12	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	BUF	66%	18.5%	5	4	54	1	7	0	—
25 wk10	NE	65%	9.3%	4	3	20	1	11	0	—
25 wk8	NO	41%	8.3%	2	1	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk7	DET	64%	14.0%	7	7	25	0	0	0	—
25 wk6	SF	49%	13.0%	3	2	51	0	0	0	—
25 wk5	SEA	41%	15.6%	5	4	24	1	-5	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 13	62%
5+ receptions	1 of 13	8%
7+ receptions	1 of 13	8%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 13	23%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 13	8%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 13	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 13	8%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	1.0	3.0	1.0	0	45%	2.8%
2025	13	3.0	28.5	4.1	1	56%	12.7%
2024	15	2.1	22.3	3.4	1	53%	10.2%
2023	15	0.7	3.8	1.5	1	15%	5.2%
2022	3	4.3	51.3	8.0	1	80%	27.2%
2021	7	5.1	52.3	7.6	1	73%	20.5%
2020	12	5.5	54.7	7.5	4	72%	23.8%
2019	10	5.7	57.6	8.3	3	91%	23.7%
2018	16	4.1	54.5	6.7	4	91%	18.6%
2017	11	5.4	66.5	7.6	2	90%	18.2%
2016	17	4.1	43.9	6.7	8	95%	17.5%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4