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Tank Bigsby

Philadelphia Eagles · Running backRB2

Over 17 games last season Tank Bigsby averaged 0.2 receptions and 2 yards on 17% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.1
0.9 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
4
Rush attempts
5.6
Rushing yards
22
Anytime TD
22%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

40%031%116%28%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.1 projected
26 wk3CHI—4.0%1150000.6 +0.4
26 wk2TEN34%5.9%22513331—
26 wk1WAS11%0.0%000130—
25 wk19SF11%0.0%0004190—
25 wk18WAS59%2.9%113116751—
25 wk17BUF9%4.5%112270—
25 wk16WAS11%0.0%0004371—
25 wk15LV39%5.6%10017570—
25 wk14LAC10%0.0%000140—
25 wk13CHI2%0.0%000000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1916%

Career by season

Tank Bigsby: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.03.31.04.712.0122%3.3%
2025170.21.90.23.922.1217%1.0%
2024160.43.40.810.547.9739%2.5%
2023160.10.40.23.18.2213%0.8%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tank Bigsby sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PHI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4