Over 15 games last season Terrance Ferguson averaged 0.8 receptions and 17 yards on 40% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.7
0.9 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
25
Anytime TD
26%
third-down role (+0.05)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.7 projected
26 wk3
DEN
26%
4.1%
2
1
9
0
2.2 -1.2
26 wk2
NYG
58%
30.0%
9
6
54
1
—
26 wk1
SF
51%
3.7%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
SEA
59%
2.9%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
CHI
29%
12.5%
5
1
19
0
—
25 wk17
ATL
49%
11.1%
4
2
54
1
—
25 wk16
SEA
76%
8.3%
4
3
33
1
—
25 wk15
DET
78%
5.3%
2
1
6
0
—
25 wk14
ARI
64%
3.2%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
CAR
35%
7.4%
2
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 17
12%
5+ receptions
1 of 17
6%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
3 of 17
18%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 17
24%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.3
21.0
4.0
1
45%
12.6%
2025
15
0.8
16.7
2.1
3
40%
5.8%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016