Theo Johnson

New York Giants · Tight endTE2

Over 15 games last season Theo Johnson averaged 3.0 receptions and 35 yards on 87% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.9

2.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9 projected
26 wk3	TEN	17%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1.9 -1.9
26 wk2	LA	28%	12.5%	4	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DAL	46%	3.4%	1	1	9	0	—
25 wk16	MIN	96%	15.4%	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	WAS	87%	11.1%	4	3	72	0	—
25 wk13	NE	89%	33.3%	8	3	29	0	—
25 wk12	DET	78%	14.7%	5	3	77	0	—
25 wk11	GB	92%	13.8%	4	3	36	0	—
25 wk10	CHI	97%	25.0%	8	7	75	0	—
25 wk9	SF	86%	18.8%	6	3	27	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 17	65%
5+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 17	24%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 17	12%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 17	24%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	3.0	1.7	0	30%	5.3%
2025	15	3.0	35.2	4.9	5	87%	17.2%
2024	12	2.4	27.6	3.6	1	84%	11.2%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Theo Johnson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYG room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4