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Tre Tucker

Las Vegas Raiders · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Tre Tucker averaged 3.4 receptions and 41 yards on 95% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.2
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
40
Anytime TD
20%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

7%016%120%219%315%410%56%64%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.2 projected
26 wk3NO57%13.3%44430003.4 +0.6
26 wk2LAC59%24.1%75119001—
26 wk1MIA71%13.8%4227000—
25 wk18KC98%23.1%6230140—
25 wk17NYG100%21.4%6549200—
25 wk16HOU100%22.7%54432110—
25 wk15PHI93%12.0%300000—
25 wk14DEN94%17.9%5224000—
25 wk13LAC96%13.6%3320000—
25 wk12CLE95%23.8%10328000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions12 of 1963%
5+ receptions5 of 1926%
7+ receptions1 of 195%
50+ receiving yards5 of 1926%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1921%

Career by season

Tre Tucker: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.763.05.0162%17.1%
2025173.440.95.4595%19.0%
2024172.831.74.8487%13.8%
2023161.220.72.1233%6.6%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tre Tucker sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LV room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Las Vegas Raiders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4