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Tyler Allgeier

Arizona Cardinals · Running backRB2

Over 17 games last season Tyler Allgeier averaged 0.8 receptions and 6 yards on 30% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.9
1.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
14
Rush attempts
8.7
Rushing yards
33
Anytime TD
21%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

21%027%122%214%38%44%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.9 projected
26 wk3SF36%8.0%44102-101.9 +2.1
26 wk2SEA64%7.7%2295100—
26 wk1LAC59%5.4%22917610—
25 wk18NO37%6.7%2137160—
25 wk17LA36%0.0%00010230—
25 wk16ARI40%2.9%11-616790—
25 wk15TB17%0.0%0002180—
25 wk14SEA39%7.1%223311340—
25 wk13NYJ25%6.5%22358201—
25 wk12NO39%5.0%11512440—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1937%

Career by season

Tyler Allgeier: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.79.32.78.023.3053%7.0%
2025170.85.60.98.430.2830%3.2%
2024170.85.20.88.137.9325%2.1%
2023171.111.41.410.940.2532%4.9%
2022161.08.71.113.164.7451%4.1%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tyler Allgeier sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ARI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Arizona Cardinals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4