Tyler Higbee

Los Angeles Rams · Tight endTE2

Over 13 games last season Tyler Higbee averaged 2.2 receptions and 28 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.6

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

28%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.6 projected
26 wk3	DEN	71%	22.4%	11	8	62	1	1.6 +6.4
26 wk2	NYG	26%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	SF	20%	7.4%	2	2	12	0	—
25 wk21	SEA	20%	2.9%	1	1	12	0	—
25 wk20	CHI	10%	5.0%	2	1	27	0	—
25 wk19	CAR	51%	7.1%	3	2	45	0	—
25 wk18	ARI	64%	16.2%	6	5	91	1	—
25 wk11	SEA	39%	7.4%	2	1	23	0	—
25 wk10	SF	54%	8.8%	3	3	33	0	—
25 wk9	NO	52%	12.9%	4	3	13	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 15	40%
5+ receptions	1 of 15	7%
7+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 15	7%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 15	7%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 15	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	24.7	4.3	1	39%	10.0%
2025	13	2.2	28.1	3.2	3	49%	9.6%
2024	5	4.0	35.6	5.4	3	41%	16.1%
2023	16	2.9	30.9	4.4	2	85%	13.2%
2022	17	4.2	36.5	6.4	3	86%	20.4%
2021	18	3.9	37.5	5.5	5	88%	15.7%
2020	17	2.8	31.2	3.8	5	78%	11.4%
2019	15	4.6	48.9	5.9	3	67%	14.9%
2018	19	1.6	18.3	2.2	3	70%	6.3%
2017	17	1.5	18.0	2.8	1	71%	8.2%
2016	16	0.7	5.3	1.8	1	40%	5.1%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tyler Higbee sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LA room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4