Tyrone Tracy Jr.

New York Giants · Running backRB depth

Over 15 games last season Tyrone Tracy Jr. averaged 2.4 receptions and 19 yards on 54% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.7

1.7 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

-1

Anytime TD

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7 projected
26 wk3	TEN	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	3	0	1.0 -1.0
26 wk2	LA	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DAL	3%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	14	0	—
25 wk18	DAL	69%	28.1%	9	8	56	18	103	1	—
25 wk17	LV	66%	6.9%	2	1	-5	14	62	0	—
25 wk16	MIN	62%	15.4%	2	2	7	16	71	0	—
25 wk15	WAS	76%	11.1%	4	3	27	15	70	2	—
25 wk13	NE	49%	4.2%	1	1	-3	10	36	0	—
25 wk12	DET	71%	11.8%	4	3	68	20	62	0	—
25 wk11	GB	51%	13.8%	4	4	51	19	88	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 17	35%
5+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 17	18%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 17	18%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	5.7	0	2%	0.0%
2025	15	2.4	19.2	3.2	11.7	49.3	4	54%	10.8%
2024	17	2.2	16.7	3.1	11.3	49.4	6	57%	9.2%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4