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Will Shipley

Philadelphia Eagles · Running backRB3

Over 16 games last season Will Shipley averaged 0.6 receptions and 4 yards on 12% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.4
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
11
Rush attempts
3.0
Rushing yards
18
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

32%030%119%210%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.4 projected
26 wk3CHI—8.0%21110001.1 -0.1
26 wk2TEN51%5.9%2257240—
26 wk1WAS18%4.5%118240—
25 wk19SF4%2.9%116000—
25 wk18WAS41%8.8%3211120—
25 wk17BUF9%0.0%000220—
25 wk16WAS11%3.4%113000—
25 wk15LV6%0.0%000000—
25 wk14LAC10%2.6%113000—
25 wk13CHI7%3.3%1111000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 180%
5+ receptions0 of 180%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards0 of 180%
75+ receiving yards0 of 180%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown0 of 180%

Career by season

Will Shipley: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.38.01.73.09.3034%6.1%
2025160.63.90.80.93.1012%2.7%
2024160.22.20.22.19.9111%0.6%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4