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Xavier Smith

Los Angeles Rams · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 19 games last season Xavier Smith averaged 0.9 receptions and 16 yards on 24% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.0
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
7
Anytime TD
10%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

43%030%115%27%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.0 projected
26 wk3DEN44%0.0%00001.3 -1.3
26 wk2NYG42%3.3%1000—
26 wk1SF26%0.0%0000—
25 wk21SEA15%0.0%0000—
25 wk20CHI6%0.0%0000—
25 wk19CAR43%0.0%0000—
25 wk18ARI33%5.4%2160—
25 wk17ATL51%16.7%64670—
25 wk16SEA24%4.2%22570—
25 wk15DET4%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 2110%
5+ receptions0 of 210%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards3 of 2114%
75+ receiving yards1 of 215%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown0 of 210%

Career by season

Xavier Smith: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.3037%1.1%
2025190.915.91.3024%3.9%
2024170.10.40.106%0.3%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4