Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Zay Flowers averaged 5.1 receptions and 71 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.4

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

30%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.4 projected
26 wk3	DAL	33%	30.0%	6	5	84	1	20	0	4.3 +0.7
26 wk1	IND	29%	25.0%	6	5	150	0	0	1	—
25 wk18	PIT	98%	35.3%	6	4	138	0	0	2	—
25 wk17	GB	68%	25.0%	5	4	30	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	NE	89%	35.0%	7	7	84	1	18	1	—
25 wk15	CIN	78%	41.7%	5	3	68	0	0	1	—
25 wk14	PIT	92%	33.3%	11	8	124	1	2	0	—
25 wk13	CIN	95%	23.3%	7	2	6	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	NYJ	84%	30.0%	6	5	58	2	11	0	—
25 wk11	CLE	89%	20.0%	5	3	78	1	5	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 18	89%
5+ receptions	11 of 18	61%
7+ receptions	6 of 18	33%
50+ receiving yards	14 of 18	78%
75+ receiving yards	8 of 18	44%
100+ receiving yards	4 of 18	22%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 18	33%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	5.0	117.0	6.0	1	31%	27.5%
2025	17	5.1	71.2	6.9	6	86%	29.9%
2024	17	4.4	62.3	6.8	4	75%	25.4%
2023	18	4.8	56.3	6.7	7	84%	23.9%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Zay Flowers sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BAL room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4