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JC

Ja'Marr Chase

Cincinnati Bengals · Wide receiverWR1

Over 16 games last season Ja'Marr Chase averaged 7.8 receptions and 88 yards on 94% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 6.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
6.6
1.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
77
Anytime TD
44%
red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

02%15%28%312%413%514%612%710%88%96%104%113%122%13Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————6.6 projected
26 wk3PIT100%32.4%129980016.2 +2.8
26 wk2HOU88%29.0%9775002—
26 wk1TB94%11.8%4212000—
25 wk18CLE100%26.3%10896001—
25 wk17ARI77%27.3%9760002—
25 wk16MIA87%35.5%119109000—
25 wk15BAL97%44.4%1610132000—
25 wk14BUF100%22.2%8544180—
25 wk13BAL99%31.8%147110000—
25 wk11PIT97%25.6%10330000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions16 of 1889%
5+ receptions15 of 1883%
7+ receptions10 of 1856%
50+ receiving yards13 of 1872%
75+ receiving yards11 of 1861%
100+ receiving yards7 of 1839%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1839%

Career by season

Ja'Marr Chase: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far36.061.78.3394%24.4%
2025167.888.211.6894%32.1%
2024177.5100.510.31792%27.2%
2023166.276.09.1787%26.0%
2022157.184.410.81194%29.2%
2021215.086.87.81487%23.8%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Ja'Marr Chase sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CIN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Cincinnati Bengals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4