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Samaje Perine

Cincinnati Bengals · Running backRB2

Over 15 games last season Samaje Perine averaged 1.1 receptions and 6 yards on 0% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.4
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
10
Rush attempts
3.9
Rushing yards
19
Anytime TD
18%
third-down role (+0.11)

What a realistic week looks like

30%030%120%211%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.4 projected
26 wk3PIT—8.1%3153901.5 -0.5
26 wk2HOU—3.2%1116260—
26 wk1TB—8.8%33305200—
25 wk18CLE—10.5%43108420—
25 wk17ARI—3.0%118351—
25 wk16MIA—9.7%32167251—
25 wk15BAL—2.8%11114420—
25 wk14BUF—2.8%1176310—
25 wk13BAL—4.5%221514390—
25 wk9CHI—0.0%000150—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 1712%
5+ receptions0 of 170%
7+ receptions0 of 170%
50+ receiving yards0 of 170%
75+ receiving yards0 of 170%
100+ receiving yards0 of 170%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1718%

Career by season

Samaje Perine: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.717.02.33.311.700%6.7%
2025151.15.81.45.625.530%4.1%
2024201.416.91.91.15.0226%5.7%
2023172.926.83.33.114.0134%11.7%
2022192.416.93.25.723.8742%8.9%
2021191.612.82.03.113.1327%6.1%
2020120.95.51.05.225.130%2.6%
201950.00.00.01.03.205%0.0%
201840.81.21.02.08.0012%2.4%
2017131.714.01.813.546.4244%5.9%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Samaje Perine sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CIN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Cincinnati Bengals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4